Gladwell

I have finished reading all three of Malcolm Gladwell's books and have found a common theme; Blink seems to tie Tipping Point and Outliers together. Even if Gladwell doesn't recognize it, all three books are ultimately about pattern recognition.

In Tipping Point Gladwell suggests that an explosive, emerging trend, fashion, or product can be predicted if one knows the signs. By using the right combination of Connectors (social networkers), Mavens (respected "experts"), and Salesmen (those who can sell the message to the masses) one can even create a tipping point whereby an idea suddenly takes off in a big way. The trick is to recognize and build on the right pattern or correlation. The right correlation is the one that has a cause and effect relationship with the new trend. Gladwell's example of crime fighting in New York subways is instructive.

In the 70's New York City subway use was at an all time low because crime underground was at an all time high. Every inch of the tunnels and trains was covered in graffiti, thousands were going through the gates without paying, and felony attacks were astronomical. One approach, the intuitive approach, would be to spend billions on hiring more police officers and increasing surveillance, etc. But the City hired a new Transit Chief who believed in the Broken Glass theory which suggests that a bad environment invites criminal activity. If you clean up the environment, you reduce crime. So, instead of doing what police usually do, they decided to clean up the subway. First, they adopted a zero tolerance policy on graffiti. As soon as a train was tagged, it was taken out of service until it was cleaned. Then the City put plainclothes cops at all the subway gates and enforced a zero tolerance for rate beaters. They arrested anyone trying to sneak in without paying. In a matter of months crime dropped precipitously. New York had found a correlation that mattered--a pattern that could be exploited. One of the lessons to be learned from this is that big changes in behavior can be made with small, incremental changes in approach. And often the relationship between the change and the behavior is counter intuitive.

In Blink Gladwell documents a number of incidents where "rapid cognition," or the art of seeing what's crucial in the blink of an eye, results in a more accurate assessment of a situation than prolonged study and research. But in my view, its not the rapidity of the view which is important, but rather the ability of the viewer to recognize a cause and effect correlation--a meaningful pattern. That pattern recognition always takes more than a quick glance. It is the result of long and arduous study. But when the pattern is recognized, it can often be applied to a situation in very short order. Experts know that a statue that has been buried for a thousand years in the earth will never look pristine when it is uncovered. Therefore, they can tell a fake antiquity in the blink of an eye.

Outliers is also about patterns, or the lack of patterns. In this book Gladwell shows us that outliers, those who are exceptionally successful, like Bill Gates, can't be identified using "rapid cognition" because there is no real pattern to these outliers. They really don't share common traits of character that suggest success is sure to come their way. Instead, they all seem to be the product of opportunity, timing, and luck as much as drive and ambition. Gladwell does point out, however, that people who are very succesful at a particular activity like programming, or playing a musical instrument, all have to put in the time to become expert. The magic number of hours is 10,000. Through serendipity, Bill Gates got in his 10,000 hours of programming long before others his age.

Also, sometimes patterns exist where they shouldn't and that can be a red flag. For example, the law of averages suggests that exceptional athletes should have birth dates dispersed evenly throughout the year. But the players in the Canadian Ice Hockey League all-star teams have birth dates almost always in Jan, Feb and Mar. That's because the cutoff date for playing youth hockey in Canada is Jan 1. In the early years, when exceptional hockey players are selected, the kids born in Jan-Mar of that year are always bigger and more coordinated than the kids born later in the year against whom they play. This means that the league is overlooking 3/4 of its best players because they have later birth dates. To address this problem, Gladwell suggests having several leagues where the kids that play are closer in age. This same phenomenon can bee seen in our schools. Some kids going to kindergarten are almost 7 while others are just past 5. Hard to compete with that type of disparity. The point is that recognizing patterns can be very helpful in virtually any human endeavor. Only if we have "eyes to see."

I enjoyed thees books immensely and learned a lot. Thanks Alan for the tip.